From: jordan@lisa.gemair.com Sent: Tuesday, June 05, 2001 10:20 AM To: Info-VAX@Mvb.Saic.Com Subject: Re: [OT] Current Microsoft v DOJ status ? In article <9fgj3v$3lv$1@husk.cso.niu.edu>, wrote: >"David J. Dachtera" writes: >>andrew harrison wrote: >>> Jordan Henderson wrote: >>> > andrew harrison wrote: > >Just to reiterate, nearly all atmospheric scientists agree that >global warming has occured. IMHO those who don't are in denial. > Perhaps. But, are they taking into account the recent evidence that global warming estimates might be exaggerated by 40% or more? http://www.heartland.org/environment/apr01/evidence.htm When this is taken into account, the "dramatic" rise that has been reported falls back more into the category of noise. >What is less universally agreed upon is whether the global warming >that has occured in the last 100 years or so is due to human causes. > Indeed. Like the evidence that global warming is more effected by solar cycles: http://www.globalwarming.org/sciup/sci12-27-00.htm http://www.globalwarming.org/sciup/sci8-22-99.html http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/solar.htm >>> Rubbish, the developed world produces over 90% of the worlds greenhouse >>> gasses, with the US being by far the largest contributor. Even under >>> the limitted terms agreed at Kyoto the US would still be by far in >>> a way the largest producer of greenhouse gasses on a per capita basis >>> in 20 years time. > >>I've yet to see a satisfactory answer to the question of whether >>so-called "greenhouse" gasses are a cause or an effect. That is, does an >>elevation in the presence of such gasses lead to a rise in atmospheric >>heat absorption and/or retention, or does an over-abundance of solar >>heating result in an acceleration of the processes which elevate the >>levels of those gasses in the atmosphere, or both (a self-propagating >>"loop" beyond the control or influence of any single factor, or even >>multiple factors that might debatably be influenced by industrial >>development)? > >Historically we don't know. We do know that temperature has been >correlated with CO2 and other greenhouse gasses for the last >400 thousand years or so. > Temperature has been much more highly correlated with solar activity: http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solar.htm >We also know that, all other things being equal, an increase in >greenhouse gasses /will/ increase temperature. > Of course, in a complex system all other things are rarely equal. CO2 is not a very powerful influence as far as greenhouse gases goes. Water vapor is a much greater influence on the greenhouse effect and there is evidence that increased CO2 may increase efficiency in some plants which will cause a reduction in water vapor: http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n22b1.htm http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n22b3.htm The fact that we don't have good models for what's going on would encourage a scientiest (as opposed to a politician) to caution in this area. For example, current conservation proposals might actually exacerbate any problems: http://www.globalwarming.org/science/nohelp.htm Also, efforts targeted at other gasses may be far more effective. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/forcings/altscenario/ >We also know that we are at or near record levels of CO2 and at least a >couple of other greenhouse gases. > >>Regardless of whether greenhouse gasses are a cause or an effect, I dare >>say that volcanism, a process well beyond the control of any life form, >>contributes more to the levels of such gasses on a world-wide scale than >>any local concentrations due to industrial activity. > >Human CO2 output is roughly 4% of the total natural CO2 output. >Since 1958 or so the levels of CO2 levels have been going up fairly >consistantly over that period, even though from what I gather there have >been very few (historically speaking) volcanoes during that period. > >http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/faq/iheard.html >http://faculty.quinnipiac.edu/health/biology/buckley/bi_101/ > biomonitoring/sld003.htm >http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/990923FO.html >http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/meth/methane_intr.htm >http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/meth/ch4.htm > >Do you have any sources for your statements? > >Robert Morphis -Jordan Henderson jordan@greenapple.com